NEWS | China’s December Imports Record Surprise Jump, Exports Beat Expectations

NEWS

China’s December Imports Record Surprise Jump, Exports Beat Expectations

An aerial view of a container ship leaving the dockyard in Qingdao in east China’s Shandong province.
Future Publishing | Getty Images

China’s trade data for December far exceeded expectations, with a strong surge in exports and an unexpected rebound in imports, suggesting that recent stimulus measures may be boosting domestic consumption while exporters continue to capitalize on global demand.

According to data released Monday by China’s customs authority, exports rose 10.7% year-on-year in December, beating the 7.3% growth forecasted in a Reuters poll. This follows a 6.7% rise in November and a 12.7% spike in October.

Imports also surprised to the upside, increasing by 1.0% in December compared to a year earlier. This marked a significant turnaround from declines of 3.9% in November and 2.3% in October. Analysts had expected a 1.5% contraction.

For the full year, yuan-denominated exports rose 7.1%, up from a marginal 0.6% growth in 2023. Imports gained 2.3%, recovering from a 0.3% decline the previous year, according to customs officials at a Monday press briefing.

“Increased fiscal spending, much of it likely still targeted at investment, is expected to drive construction activity and raise demand for industrial commodities in the coming months,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

With domestic demand weakened by an ongoing real estate crisis, exports have become a key pillar of China’s economic resilience. Analysts say trade likely played a major role in sustaining growth throughout 2024. The country is set to release its GDP figures for Q4 and the full year on Friday, with Reuters polling a 5.1% annual growth rate for the final quarter.

Despite this export strength, looming risks threaten future performance. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, set to be inaugurated on January 20, has pledged to impose a 10% blanket tariff on all Chinese imports, which could severely impact China's export-driven sectors.

In 2024, exports of electric vehicles rose 13.1%, while semiconductor exports surged 18.7%, reflecting continued demand in key tech-driven industries.

Since late September, Beijing has stepped up its economic support measures, including cutting policy rates, easing property restrictions, injecting liquidity into markets, and implementing a debt-swap program to relieve pressure on local government finances.

Still, some economists warn that Beijing is approaching stimulus with caution. “Though top leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi still appears reluctant to embrace the additional degree of stimulus required to combat deflation,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo.

“Policymakers need to keep some stimulus powder dry to enable an ample response if the tariff impact is severe,” he added, citing the uncertain global trade outlook as a reason for measured policy moves.

Looking ahead to 2025, Chinese leadership has pledged to prioritize domestic consumption and increase fiscal spending, particularly to support the government’s consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade policy. The initiative, launched in July 2024, offers subsidies to consumers who trade in old vehicles or appliances for new ones.

This is a developing story. Please check back for further updates.